:Product: 20011201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718 (S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19), 9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were observed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715 (N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear capable of isolated major flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field may become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29 November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal hole possible late in the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Dec 221 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 020/030-012/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/25/25 Minor storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/01