:Product: 20011202RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 9714 (S09W95) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 02/1500 UTC as it crossed the west limb. A post-flare loop prominence system followed this flare. Region 9715 (N04W37) produced isolated C-class subflares. It remained the most impressive region on the disk, but showed signs of gradual decay with a modest decrease in area. However, it remained magnetically complex as a magnetic delta configuration persisted within its interior spots. Region 9718 (S06E16) showed minor growth and produced isolated subflares, one of which reached C-class. Some polarity mixing persisted in the trailer portion of this region. New Region 9725 (S11W45) emerged during the period. New Region 9726 (S15E69) rotated into view today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the period with isolated M-class flares likely. There will also be a chance for an isolated major flare during the period from Region 9715. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected. However, there will be a chance for active periods during 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9715. III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Dec 245 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 245/245/245 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 010/010-012/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/25 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01