:Product: 20011203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. The NOAA/SXI test imagery observed an M2 event from Region 9714 at 02/2206 UTC as it rotated around the southwest limb of the sun. Region 9715 (N04W49) continues to show a slight decay from yesterday. New Region 9727 (S22E68) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 9715 and 9718 (S07E03). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Dec 235 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 230/225/225 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/010-010/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01