:Product: 20011204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9718 (S06W09) produced two low level M-class events during the period. New Region 9728 (N36W07) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Region 9718. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Dec 233 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 008/010-007/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01