:Product: 20011205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class flares have occurred through the period. There are fourteen numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk with Region 9718 (S07W24) being the largest at approximately 660 millionths and 34 spots. Region 9727 (S21E42) has grown in area and spot count and is currently a Dko beta-gamma-delta group with 14 spots. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9729 (N24E04) and 9730 (S13E49). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9718 is still capable of producing an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec Class M 70/70/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Dec 237 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/008-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01