:Product: 20011207RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 9727 (S22E16) produced today's largest flare: a C8/2f at 0817 UTC. This region is the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk and is showing slow growth. Region 9718 (S06W51) is the largest group on the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration and did not produce any flare activity. New Region 9732 (N03E64) rotated into view today and showed occasional brightenings. A partial halo CME was observed in coronagraph images today: the event crossed the C2 field of view in about 80-90 minutes, beginning at 1430 UTC. Most of the mass appeared to be over the northwest limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9727 and 9718 are considered to be the most likely sources for M-class level activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, and predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days. III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec Class M 70/70/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Dec 226 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 225/220/210 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-010/008-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/30 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/35 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05