:Product: 20011216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9733 (N14W36) remained the most active sunspot group on the disk. It
produced two M-class flares: an M1/2N at 16/0124 UTC and an M1/1f at
16/0328 UTC. Minor radio emission accompanied both flares. Region
9733 decreased slightly in area and magnetic complexity and appeared
to lose the magnetic delta configuration within its northernmost
spots. However, it retained a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 9739 (S13W43) appeared to be in a gradual
growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9742 (N08E64)
produced isolated subflares during the period. Magnetogram images
suggest this region may possess a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity, though it is difficult to gauge given its limb
proximity. New Region 9743 (S10E73) produced isolated subflares as
it rotated into view. It may represent the return of old Region 9714
(S08, L = 195), which produced M-class flares during its last
rotation. New Region 9744 (S06E24) was also numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated, low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9733 may produce a major flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a
chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 209
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  205/200/195
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01