:Product: 20011217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only isolated, minor C-class events occurred during the period. Region 9733 (N14E48) continued to show signs of gradual decay as it nears the west limb. This region lost its delta configuration and now retains a beta-gamma classification. Region 9742 (N08E51) is showing signs of increased magnetic complexity and should develop into a beta-gamma classification in the next one or two days. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is still a slight chance of a major event occurring from Region 9733. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active conditions occurring at higher latitudes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is still a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9733. III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec Class M 75/75/75 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Dec 203 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 214 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01