:Product: 20011222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9749 (S08E43) produced a C3/Sf flare at 21/2152 UTC. Three additional optically uncorrelated C-class flares were observed during the period. Region 9742 (N10W16) continues to be the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region was stable and appears to have slightly decreased in areal coverage during the period. A 15-degree filament near S19E26 disappeared sometime between 22/0108 UTC and 22/0225 UTC. A second, smaller, filament disappeared near N15E49 between 22/1636 UTC and 22/1653 UTC. New Regions 9752 (S14W19) and 9753 (S20E67) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9742 remains capable of producing M-class flares and there is a chance for an isolated major flare from this region. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may experience isolated active conditions on days two and three of the period as a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective. III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Dec 243 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 245/250/250 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/010-010/012-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/50/40 Minor storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05