:Product: 20011223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Dec 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred from a number of active regions. Region 9742 (N10W29) remains the largest sunspot group currently on the disk. Although it continues to grow in sunspot number and area it has yet to produce significant flare activity. New Region 9754 (S09E61) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9742 appears to be the most likely source of M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Dec 255 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 260/265/270 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01