:Product: 20020101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Jan 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Most significant activity during the period was an optically uncorrelated C4 x-ray flare which occurred at 01/0910 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E49) remains the most ominous and magnetically complex region on disk. Even so, it has been relatively quiescent throughout the period with no appreciable change to umbral structure. Region 9764 (N14W37) has shown a dramatic increase in spot coverage during the period although it also has been restrained. New Region 9768 (S06W15) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC remains in progress. Event maximum was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton particle flux event is expected to end late on day one of the forecast. III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 99/50/10 PCAF in progress IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jan 232 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-008/008-006/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01