:Product: 20020102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9754
(S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n
flare at 02/1252 UTC.  This region grew in magnetic complexity
during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was
seen yesterday in white light.  Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751
(N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small
C-class flares.  Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent
through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare.  A decrease in
area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic
structure remained unchanged in Region 9767.  New Regions 9769
(S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.  This event has been on a
very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this
writing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the
forecast.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/99/10
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 231
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  230/230/225
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 220
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/008-006/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01