:Product: 20020109RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Jan 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9773 (N14W05) produced an impulsive M9/2b flare at 1801 UTC, with an associated radio burst of 230 sfu at 2695 MHz. Earlier it had an M1/1f at 1113 UTC. The region grew significantly in white light and h-alpha during the day, and evolved magnetically to a beta gamma-delta type. It seems to still retain its potency, and is prominent from its location near center disk. Region 9767 (S18W61) generated a few c-class events as it simplified. Newly numbered Region 9780 (S11W49) emerged on the disk. Today's 10.7 cm solar flux measurement may be flare enhanced. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9767 and 9773 each have the potential for M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. High-speed solar wind is expected to buffet the magnetosphere throughout the period, bringing occasional episodes of minor storming to local nighttime sectors. III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jan 229 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 222 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 015/015-015/020-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05