:Product: 20020113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9773 (N16W56)
produced an M1/1n flare at 0310 UTC and continues to be the largest
region on the disk. Region 9773 continues to show a magnetic delta
configuration in the middle of the group. Region 9775 (S05W43)
produced an M2/Sf at 1946 UTC and currently consists of a relatively
large number of spots in a complicated, beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 9778 (S17E08) appears to be growing slowly,
and there may be a small delta configuration forming in the group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for a major
flare or proton producing flare, with Region 9773 being the most
likely source.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began 10/2045 UTC ended today at 13/1425 UTC. The
peak flux was 91 PFU at 11/0530 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours. Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 241
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  235/235/240
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  012/010-007/008-007/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01