:Product: 20020114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The largest event of
the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an
evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.
M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n
from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region
9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC.  The largest active region on the
visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat
as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and
magnetic complexity.  Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)
exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  Isolated major flare activity
is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  High speed stream
effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane
with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.
Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were
enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Enhancements of
particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result
in above-threshold events during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     30/20/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 229
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  235/240/240
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  007/008-007/005-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01