:Product: 20020115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9775 (S06W69)
was most active, producing an M1/Sf event at 14/2246 UTC, and
several other subfaint C-class flares during the period.  This
region is exhibiting some growth in magnetic complexity and areal
coverage as it approaches the west limb.  Other sources of weak
C-class flare activity during the period included Regions 9782
(N06E20) and 9773 (N16W80).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  Particle fluxes for both >2MeV
electrons and >10MeV protons reached event levels during the period.
>2MeV electrons briefly exceeded 1000 pfu at geosynchronous orbit
near local noon, as measured on GOES-8, during 15/1405-1615 UTC.  A
proton event for >10MeV flux reached event threshold of 10 pfu at
15/1435 UTC, and remains in progress with a current flux of about 12
pfu.  The slow enhancement in proton flux is likely from the west
limb CME event of 14 January, with the delay in enhancement due to
the intervening effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mainly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods.
The >10MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day of
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     90/30/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 218
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  220/215/220
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  007/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01