:Product: 20020116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9775
(S06W86) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1013 UTC as well as
occasional C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed
in this region as it began to cross the west limb. Region 9773
(N16W93) produced an isolated C-class subflare as it crossed the
west limb early in the period. Region 9782 (N06E05) showed a minor
increase in area, but appeared to simplify due to the loss of a
delta magnetic configuration in the southern portion of its leader
spots. New Region 9786 (S26E07) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible
from Region 9775 as it continues to rotate out of view. There will
also be a chance for an M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 15/1435 UTC ended at 16/1205
UTC. The maximum for this event was 15 PFU at 15/2000 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels during
the latter half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    70/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 216
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  215/220/220
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01