:Product: 20020118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
X-ray flares occurred. There were two sunspot groups of note: Region
9782 (N06W22) and Region 9786 (S26W19). Region 9782 underwent minor
changes with a small decrease in area, but continued to show a mix
of polarities within its southern leader spots. Region 9786 appeared
to be in a gradual growth phase, but was simply structured. The
remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9788 (N16E53) was
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there will be a small chance for an
isolated low-level M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to normal to moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. However, there will
be a chance for brief active levels on 20 - 21 January due to
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 211
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  215/220/225
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  008/008-012/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05