:Product: 20020119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9787 (S07E59) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 19/1005 UTC with
minor radio emission. Minor growth occurred in this region, but it
remained simply structured. Minor growth also occurred in Regions
9786 (S25W32) and 9788 (N17E40), but both remained simple bipoles.
Region 9788 produced a low-level C-class flare late in the period.
Region 9782 showed a minor decrease in area and continued to display
minor polarity mixing within its southern leader spots. A large
filament disappeared from the northeast quadrant late on 18 January.
SOHO EIT/LASCO images showed that the filament gradually disappeared
and was followed by a relatively slow, non-Earth directed CME. New
Regions 9789 (N15W02) and 9790 (N28E25) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a chance for an isolated low-level
M-class flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels during 19/1200
- 1800 UTC, then decreased to mostly unsettled levels. The increased
activity was likely due to coronal hole effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active conditions will be possible early in
the period due to coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 214
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  220/225/230
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  012/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01