:Product: 20020120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Activity consisted
of several minor C-class flares.  The most significant was a C3/Sf
flare from Region 9788 (N17E27), which occurred at 20/1552 UTC.
Minor growth was observed in this region during the period, although
it remains a simple bipolar complex.  Little, if any, changes during
the period were evident in Regions 9783 (S11W25), 9785 (N11W39),
9786 (S25W45), and 9787 (S07E46).  Newly numbered Region 9791
(S03W19) shows some promise, evidenced by a rapidly growing spot
complex.  Regions 9792 (N07E23), 9793 (S15E32), and 9794 (N11E65)
were also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels.  Although, Regions 9785, 9786, 9887, and
9788 exhibit the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  However, isolated
active conditions may exist on day one of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 222
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  225/235/240
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  008/008-006/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    06/02/02