:Product: 20020121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Activity consisted
of several minor C-class flares from three separate regions.  Region
9788 (N18E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf
flare at 21/0329 UTC.  This region continues to show growth in both
spot coverage and magnetic complexity.  Region 9791 (S03W33) also
continues to show rapid growth and produced a minor C-class flare
late in the period.  Region 9785 (N10W85) produced a small C-class
flare early in the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  A chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare
remains possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    45/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 225
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  230/235/235
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/008-006/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01