:Product: 20020122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
9791 (S02W46) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 22/0900 UTC.  The
sunspot group appears to have simplified somewhat since the flare
occurred, reducing penumbral coverage to about half of what was
observed yesterday.  Region 9789 (N18W42) produced an impulsive
C5/Sf flare at 22/1313 UTC and has also been in decay since flare
occurrence.  One event of note, an optically uncorrelated near long
duration C1 flare occurred at 22/0758 UTC.  This flare had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
1017 km/s.  LASCO imagery doesn't indicate earth directed CME
activity with any of today's events.  Regions 9787 (S06E19) and 9788
(N18E00) have shown growth over the period as both regions have
acquired gamma classification to their magnetic structures.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 9787 and 9788 have the potential of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 229
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  235/235/235
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/008-006/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01