:Product: 20020123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9794 (N12E23)
was the most active region during the period and produced the
largest flare of the day.  This region produced a C3/Sf at 23/1337
UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 562 km/s.  A second Type II radio sweep occurred in this
region following an optical Sf flare at 23/0339 UTC, estimated shock
velocity of 384 km/s.  SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates neither of these
radio sweeps will be geoeffective.  This region also produced two
other minor C-class flares early in the period.  Regions 9783
(S11W65), 9787 (S07E06), and newly numbered Region 9799 (S25E54)
also produced minor C-class flare activity during the period.
Region 9788 (N17W14) did show some decay in the penumbral coverage
since yesterday, although this region retains it's beta-gamma
magnetic classification.  New Regions 9795 (N23W60), 9796 (N09E18),
9797 (S16E32), and 9798 (S03E42) were also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 9787 and 9788 magnetic structures
possess the potential to produce M-class flares
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 227
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  230/225/225
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01