:Product: 20020124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C7 at 24/0439 UTC. Images from the SOHO
spacecraft suggest that the source of the event was from just behind
the east limb. Other areas only produced a few small subflares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Regions 9787
(S06W06) or 9788 (N18W30).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 231
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  225/225/225
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01