:Product: 20020125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9794 (N13W03) produced
the largest flare of the past day, a C6/Sn at 25/0225 UTC. Region
9787 (S09W21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk
but is not particularly complex and has not produced major activity.
New Regions 9800 (N07E63) and 9801 (S03E77) rotated into view.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-level activity is expected to continue and there is a
small chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 235
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  240/245/250
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01