:Product: 20020126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. New Region 9802 (S13E72)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 26/2005 UTC. This active region does not
appear particularly large or complex. Region 9787 (S09W33) remains
the largest group but has been relatively quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 240
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  240/245/250
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01