:Product: 20020127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. C-class flares continued, the
largest being a C6/Sf at 26/2228 UTC in Region 9788 (N17W70). Region
9787 (S08W48) also produced C-class activity during the past day.
Region 9800 (N07E35) continued to grow but did not generate any
flares. New Region 9803 (S24W47) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity should continue and there is a small
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was enhanced from an event beyond the northwest limb,
reaching a peak of 9 pfu at 27/1710 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is not expected to exceed event thresholds.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 248
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  250/255/260
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01