:Product: 20020128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9788 (N18W85)
produced a C9/Sf at 28/0310 UTC.  Region 9800 (N07E23) has increased
in size and magnetic complexity to a Beta-gamma configuration with
some mixing in the leader spot.  Region 9802 (S16E49) has increased
in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration and has grown
in area size and spot count.  A 25 degree disappearing filament
(S29E18) occurred  between 27/2116 and 28/1318 UTC.  Three new
regions were numbered today:  Region 9804 (S19E27), Region 9805
(N14E64), and Region 9806 (N11E70).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9800 and 9802 have the potential for M-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.   Greater
than 10 MeV protons have returned to background levels after the
enhancement of 27/1710 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 260
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  255/260/260
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  008/010-010/012-005/004
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01