:Product: 20020129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of
the period was a C9 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/2349 UTC and was
optically uncorrelated.  Region 9800 (N07E10) produced multiple
C-class flares that comprised most all of the optically correlated
activity during the period.  This region now contains a delta
magnetic structure in the dominant lead asymmetrical spot, group
continues to show trending towards the growth phase.  Region 9802
(S16E36), although activity quiescent, has also shown steady growth
during the period and now yields a beta-gamma magnetic spot group
classification.  A 16 degree filament (DSF) disappeared from the
southeast quadrant of the solar disk between 28/2352 - 29/1451 UTC.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9800 does have the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 261
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  265/260/260
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    00/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01