:Product: 20020131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  An M3.6 flare
occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb).
Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class
flares.  Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an
Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a
13 degree extent.  Region 9800 has shown little change in the last
24 hours.  Two new Regions were numbered today:  Region 9808
(N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the
potential for producing major events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    65/65/60
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 243
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  240/240/235
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 225
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01