:Product: 20020201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A small C-class
flare from Region 9800 (N08W31) along with several minor radio
sweeps and bursts comprised most all of today's activity.  Region
9802 (S15W05) continues to show growth and development of spot
complex, the delta magnetic structure has become more evident during
the period.  New Region 9810 (N10E81) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  USAF
planetary experienced an isolated period of active conditions from
01/1500 - 1800 UTC.  Shortly after 31/2100 UTC, a shock passage was
observed at the ACE satellite.  This was followed by a sudden
impulse of 19 nT observed at Boulder at 01/2127 UTC.  The source
region for this weak shock is unknown.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 246
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  245/245/245
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 225
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01