:Product: 20020203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  C4/Sf flares
occurred in Region 9807 (S27E26) at 03/0553 UTC and in Region 9802
(S14W31) at 03/1519 UTC, these being the largest flares for the
period.  Region 9807 has shown some decay since yesterday in spot
complex.  The beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure in Region 9802
remains intact.  Region 9800 had no optically correlated flares
today and continues to show decay in both umbral coverage and
magnetic complexity.  New Regions 9813 (S24W13), 9814 (N07E15), and
9815 (N12E70) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low to moderate levels.  A slight chance for major
flare activity is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be quiet to unsettled through days one and two of the
forecast period.  Day three may see active levels with possible
minor storm conditions due to the onset of a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 233
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  235/230/225
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 225
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05