:Product: 20020204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9809
(S06E16) produced two M-class flares during the period.  The largest
was an M2 x-ray flare at 04/0602 UTC, an M1 followed shortly
thereafter, at 04/0658 UTC.  Both of these flares were optically
correlated using SOHO/EIT and Culgoora Solar Observatory data.
Region 9802 (S14W44) produced a C7/Sf flare at 04/1909 UTC along
with several other smaller C-class flares throughout the period.
This region also grew in penumbral coverage since yesterday and is
an Fki beta-gamma-delta complex.  Region 9800 (N10W73) has continued
to decay as it nears the west limb.  Numerous minor and significant
Type III radio sweeps were observed today.  Newly numbered Region
9816 (S13W33) is showing rapid growth in spot areal coverage and
produced a Sf flare at 04/0438 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9802 may yet produce an isolated
major flare before exiting the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the
forecast.  Active conditions may be expected due to the effects of a
large transequatorial coronal hole for days two and three of the
forecast.  Additionally, a slight chance of isolated minor storm
levels could occur at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 235
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  230/225/215
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 225
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-010/015-014/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05