:Product: 20020205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar Activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9802
(S15W56) produced an M1.3/Sf flare at 04/2330 UTC.  Region 9802
continues to show gradual decay but remains a magnetically complex
Beta-gamma-delta region.  Region 9816 (S12W46) growth continues but
at a slower rate than yesterday.  A large positive polarity coronal
hole near central latitude is currently rotating into a
geo-effective position.  Solar wind speed has increased to 550
km/sec at the time of forecast issue.  Three new regions were
numbered today:  Region 9817 (S07E23), Region 9818 (N06E54), and
Region 9819 (S29E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9802 and has the potential for M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3
hour period of quiet conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole
effects.  Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected to return by day
three of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    60/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 221
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  225/225/220
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 225
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  015/020-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01