:Product: 20020207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9815 (N12E17) produced
a  C4 flare at 07/1337 UTC with associated discrete radio bursts at
the lower frequencies.  Minor C-Class flares represent the only
other activity on the disc.  Region 9802 (S14W80) has decayed to a
small beta group as it rotates beyond the west limb.  One new region
was numbered today:  Region 9820 (N15E46).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the a chance of an isolated M-class event from
region 9802 as it rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active on day one of the forecast period.
Day two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled as the
effects of the coronal hole diminish.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    40/30/25
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 192
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 224
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  012/012-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01