:Product: 20020208RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C4.0 flare at 08/1043 UTC. Region 9810 (N11W14) has shown some growth in spot count and extent. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9821 (S14E16) and Region 9822 (N18E69). Region 9822 appeared as a 150 millionths, 9 spots, Dao class group and suggests a potentially active region. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. The indication of activity on the northeast limb may increase flare potential later in the forecast period as this area rotates onto the disc. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels with a peak value of 985 pfu at 08/1730 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to moderate levels. III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb Class M 30/25/25 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Feb 192 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 223 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/010-008/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01