:Product: 20020209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several C-class flares were
observed during the period with the largest a C2/Sf from Region 9821
(S14E03) at 09/0817 UTC.  This region has shown significant growth
since yesterday in both area and spot count.  Three new regions were
numbered today as Region's 9823 (S05E24), 9824 (N21E67), and 9825
(N12E69).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance of increased activity with the addition of the new
regions numbered today in the northeast.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today
with a peak flux of 1130 pfu at 09/1530 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain enhanced at moderate
to high levels for the next two to three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 199
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  205/205/200
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01