:Product: 20020210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9811 (S26W20)
produced an M1/2f event at 10/1848 UTC.  Region 9825 (N12E57)
produced a C5/1f long duration event at 10/1928 UTC.  Region 9821
(S14W11) continues to show growth in both area and spot count and is
currently an Esi beta-gamma group with approximately 33 spots.  A
new region was numbered today as Region 9826 (S23E39).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9811, 9821, and 9825 are capable of producing
an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to moderate
levels through 11 February and returning to background levels around
12 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 217
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  220/225/225
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01