:Product: 20020211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only low level C-class events
observed during the period from Region 9821 (S13W25), 9822 (N18E26),
and 9825 (N12E43).  Two new regions were numbered today as Region's
9827 (S25W43) and 9828 (S15E50).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 9821
and 9825.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  The greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible for 13 February with the influence of a high speed stream.
The greater than 2 Mev electrons are expected to be enhanced to
moderate levels through 13 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 202
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  205/210/215
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01