:Product: 20020212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  There were several C-class
events during the period.  The largest of these was an C5/1f long
duration flare at 12/1442 UTC from Region 9825 (N13E29).  This
region continues to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is
currently an Eai beta-gamma group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9825 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 208
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  215/215/215
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01