:Product: 20020213RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There were several C-class events during the past 24 hours; most of these were from Region 9825 (N14E16). The largest event was a C7/1n from 9825 at 0712 UTC. Region 9825 has grown steadily and is now the largest group on the disk. Region 9821 (S13W53) is now the second largest region but is decaying and did not produce any flare activity. A CME was observed in C2 from the southeast limb, beginning at 2030 UTC: the CME does not appear to be earthward directed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region 9825 being the main threat. There is a very slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at moderate levels for a significant fraction of the day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the third day. III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 204 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 222 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-010/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01