:Product: 20020214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142
UTC. Most of today's flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).
9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and
continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.
Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type
group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were
observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen
in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the
southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward
component.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole
effects. Day three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
due to possible geoeffectiveness from today's CME that originated
from the southwest part of the solar disk.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 196
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  195/190/190
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  007/008-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10