:Product: 20020215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few, low-level C-class
subflares occurred during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from
Region 9825 (N14W13), which is currently largest sunspot group on
the disk. Region 9825 is showing signs of decay and simplification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is still a chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event from Region 9825.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow as there is a
possibility for short-lived effects from a favorably positioned, but
small coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with occasional active
periods are expected on the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to
yesterday's partial halo CME from the southeast part of the solar
disk.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 195
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  190/185/185
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-015/012-015/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10