:Product: 20020216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low, with only a few, low-level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 9825 (N13W24)
continues to decay and simplify. Region 9830 (S20E44) showed
moderate growth during the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional
brightenings and plage fluctuations. New Region 9831 (S11W41)
emerged on the disk today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class event, either
from Region 9825, or possibly from Region 9830 if it continues to
emerge.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods over
the next two days as a possible response to the partial halo CME
from the southwest part of the disk on 14 February. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail on the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 194
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  015/012-015/012-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05