:Product: 20020217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9830
(S18E31) was the most active of the visible regions. It produced
occasional subflares as it grew at a gradual pace with increased
sunspot area and magnetic complexity. A magnetic delta configuration
may have developed within its leader spots. Region 9825 (N12W35)
continued to gradually decay and simplify. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9830.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Activity
increased to unsettled to active levels during 17/0300 - 0900 UTC
following a sudden impulse at 17/0257 UTC (13 nT, as measured by the
Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity decreased to quiet to
unsettled levels after 17/0900 UTC. This brief increase in activity
appeared to be the result of a weak CME passage.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 197
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  195/195/190
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  010/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05