:Product: 20020218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels for the eighth
consecutive day. Isolated C-class subflares occurred. Region 9830
(S18E20) produced a few subflares as it continued to gradually
increase in size and complexity. Multiple magnetic delta
configurations have developed within its leader spots during recent
days. Region 9825 (N14W51) continued to gradually decay. New Region
9832 (S13E25) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 could produce an isolated M-class flare
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 193
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  195/190/185
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  007/012-007/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01