:Product: 20020219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 189
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  195/200/205
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01