:Product: 20020221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9825 (N13W90)
continued to be the region of primary concern as it rotated around
the NW limb. The three M-class flares this period all appear to have
originated from this region. The largest was an M3 at 21/1226Z. A
prominence erupted from this area at 21/0608Z, followed by a large
filament eruption at around 21/1100Z. Region 9335 (S09W75) grew
rather quickly this period and produced some small flares as it
approaches the west limb. New Regions 9838 (N05W18), 9839 (S16E06),
and 9840 (S12E72), were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. We may continue to experience activity
from behind the NW limb for the next day or so. Region 9835 has
potential to produce M-class activity with a small chance for a
major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated following the small
proton event that began and ended between 20/0730 - 0800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field  is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active conditions are expected on day two due to an expected CME
passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    70/65/60
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 201
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  205/200/200
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/015-015/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/20
Minor storm           10/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/50/25
Minor storm           15/35/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10