:Product: 20020222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34)
produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This
region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic
complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity
noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is
the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835
(S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36
hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New
Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to
produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major
flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near
the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage
associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    60/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 192
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  190/190/185
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  015/020-010/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/10
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/35/20
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/05