:Product: 20020223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33).  Region
9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on
the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This
region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new
flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still
exists.  Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839
(S18W20).  New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class
flares with the slight chance of a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods early in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.  The minor
geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has
not yet materialized.  It is unlikely that we will see any impact
from this CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    60/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 188
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  190/185/185
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  010/015-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05